Albanian election result unclear after broadcasters withhold exit polls

Hours after polls closed in Albania, it remains unclear whether the ruling Socialist Party clinched a historic fourth term or if the opposition Democratic Party edged ahead after a fiercely fought election campaign.

Not a single Albanian news channel released exit polls, leaving voters and observers in the dark about the outcome of an election seen as critical to Albania’s path toward European Union membership. Election officials expect the result to be known by Tuesday.

“Exit polls were not published even by news channels who announced that they would have their own polls on the night of the election,” Lutfi Dervishi, a political analyst, told POLITICO. “There is no clear answer as to why this happened.”

A lone exit poll released by Klan Kosova — a news channel from neighboring Kosovo — and the English-language Albanian Post news site known for its pro-government views, points to a decisive win for Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists at 51 percent, with Sali Berisha’s Democrats lagging significantly behind at 38 percent.

Broadcasters have offered no obvious explanation for their decision not to publish the polls, running normal stories such as analysis on what a win for either contender could mean or on small incidents such as a ballot box being damaged in the region of Kamëz.

“My guess is that political parties in the country could have exercised pressure on the news outlets to not discourage the commissioners participating in the vote-counting process,” Dervishi added.

Journalists in Albania come under particular pressure during elections, according to Reporters Without Borders. The country ranks higher on the organization’s press freedom index than some nearby countries such as Greece, Kosovo and Serbia, though.

In Albania, ballot boxes travel from polling stations to the district vote collection center, where officials hand-count every vote under the watchful eyes of party monitors and observers from all political parties, as well as civil society organizations, in an attempt to guarantee a fair and transparent tally.

Due to the high-stakes character of this election, both parties seemed determined to encourage their election commissioners and vote-counting observers to make sure every vote is recorded without the slightest bit of influence. “If an exit poll comes out and says that one side lost, it could seriously threaten the integrity of the voting process,” Dervishi said.

In a rare turn of events, the country’s media seemed to have formed an omertà of silence and decided to withhold their exit polls until the Central Election Commission breaks the news first.

Local and international reporters covering the election, including for POLITICO, spent the evening furiously reaching out to leading news broadcasters in the country, such as Top Channel and Ora News, and received no clear response as to why exit polls were not published.

Diaspora vote

Albania has around 3.5 million registered voters, with at least 1.4 million citizens living abroad. For the first time in Albania’s democratic history, citizens were allowed to vote from outside the country. Around 245,000 of the Albanian diaspora are registered to vote, and around 190,000 took part in the election on Sunday.

The first-time inclusion of overseas votes has raised questions about the reliability of exit polls and may help explain why television stations chose to withhold them.

The Central Election Commission is obliged to publish a preliminary vote count within 48 hours of polls closing, but will likely have a general prediction early Monday morning.

However, even the results from two administrative districts that were implementing a pilot program for electronic voting in Vorë and the 10th district — meaning the vote would be automatically counted — decided to postpone the announcement until the next day.

A scuffle broke out among observers at the main vote-counting center in Tirana’s Olympic Stadium after ballot boxes containing diaspora votes from Greece arrived. Democratic Party monitors demanded that the commission review the validity of the ballots, sparking tensions on the floor of the stadium.

Opposition leader Berisha issued a statement urging the Central Election Commission not to succumb to pressure to rush the vote-counting process.

“The vote is in the hands of the commissioners who bear the greatest responsibility. No vote can and should be counted under duress.”

Pre-election polls put Rama’s Socialist Party firmly in the lead, yet the opposition Democratic Party fought to revive its base and mount a comeback — going so far as to hire former Trump strategist Chris LaCivita to shape its platform.

Should the Socialists secure another mandate, Rama, who has already been in power for 12 years, would become Albania’s longest-serving leader since communist ruler Enver Hoxha.