Macron dissolved the French parliament a year ago. How will he surprise us again?

PARIS — Exactly one year ago Monday, Emmanuel Macron made good on his reputation as a high-stakes political gambler when he dissolved France’s National Assembly.

The move left the country in shock, then backfired in spectacular fashion. Macron lost his parliamentary majority, left the country without a functioning government for months and exacerbated an acute budget crisis. 

The French president could technically do it all over again starting in early July, since the constitution allows him to call a snap election once a year.

Will he go for double or nothing?

In politics, and in life, always expect the unexpected, so POLITICO has prepped a list of deeply researched, incredibly serious and not-at-all outlandish predictions for what could happen before the second anniversary of La Surprise du Chef.

Macron calls another election

With France’s minority government paralyzed by parliamentary gridlock, it is tempting to roll the dice again — though Macron publicly ruled out doing so in the next couple of months.

Likelihood: 

Le Pen throws in the towel  

After fighting her own father on her way to power, far-right leader Marine Le Pen now risks being sidelined in the final stretch of her career by her handpicked successor, Jordan Bardella. Le Pen has vowed to carry on despite an embezzlement conviction threatening her prospects of running in the 2027 presidential election. But Le Pen faces the very daunting question of what to do next after a life devoted to politics. (POLITICO has some helpful suggestions for that, too.)

Likelihood:

Macron throws in the towel 

Calls for the French president’s resignation crescendoed following last year’s disastrous snap election, and there was some speculation he would follow the path of Charles de Gaulle and call it quits in the middle of his term.

Macron, however, said he wasn’t going anywhere, and that still seems to be the case.

Likelihood:

The other Macron throws in the towel

It kind of looks like she’s had enough with the whole first lady thing. 

Likelihood:

Macron jumps in the Seine  

Just for a swim, mind you. Ahead of the Paris Olympics, the hype was high among politicians about swimming in the Seine, Paris’ iconic river which was set to host several competitions. Several of them made good on their promises, with more or less gusto. The French president promised to do so as well, but he has yet to take the plunge.   

Likelihood:

French prime minister … stays on 

It’s been a while since a French prime minister lasted longer than six months, but no one really wants to be in François Bayrou’s shoes at the moment.

Likelihood:

Likelihood when budget season comes: 

French judges jail Elon Musk 

France has already jailed one tech mogul over illicit activity on the app he operates, and there’s plenty of trash published on X. So is Elon Musk next?

Probably not. (Reminder that France boasts a functioning, respected independent judicial system.)

But in the very, very off chance it did, there’d probably be a bit of schadenfreude in the Elysée and wherever Thierry Breton is these days given Musk’s attacks on European democracy and tech regulation — not to mention the fact that he made fun of Macron’s marital woes in front of the press while in the Oval Office.

Likelihood:

Donald Trump offers to buy New Caledonia 

The U.S. president won’t stop at Greenland once he finds out about all the nickel — a material essential in making stainless steel as well as batteries for use in electric vehicles — in New Caledonia.

Politics are complicated in the French overseas territory in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, so who’s not to say that Trump offers to bail out his good buddy Macron by purchasing “BEAUTIFUL” New Caledonia.  

Likelihood:

French teens riot after being barred from social media 

It’s one of Macron’s obsessions and the rare subject of political consensus among French political parties. The French government has made a big push to make it a European policy and warned it would go ahead one way or another with barring kids under 15 from social media.

Surely this will go down well with today’s youth. Teenagers love rules and being told what to do.

Likelihood: