Germany’s ‘bad theater’ border crackdown

BERLIN — Just hours after being sworn in as part of Germany’s new conservative-led government, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced a major crackdown on migration intended to send “a clear signal to the world.”

Yet, thus far, it’s turned out to be little more than an exercise in political stagecraft, say migration experts and high-ranking European officials with knowledge of the situation on Germany’s borders.

“There has not really been any change,” said Gerald Knaus, a prominent migration expert and a frequent adviser to European governments. “It’s theater. But the trouble is it’s bad theater.”

Dobrindt announced several thousand additional police officers would be sent to the border to beef up ongoing  checks and turn more migrants away — including asylum seekers. The policy shift was an apparent attempt to deliver on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s frequent campaign pledges to radically restrict the flow of asylum seekers into Germany from “day one” in office.

Merz made those promises under pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which surged in the polls on an anti-immigration message ahead of the Feb. 23 snap election, and is now the largest opposition party in Germany.

But the facts on the ground suggest the increased border checks, until now, have been more symbolic than consequential.

A high-ranking official from a country neighboring Germany, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to freely discuss the matter without upsetting an ally, said they were observing the situation on the border “extremely closely” but had seen no dramatic changes. The immediate goal of the Merz government, the official added, seemed to be to win favorable coverage in right-wing German tabloids, some of which referred to Dobrindt’s policy shift as the “asylum stop.”

A chain of border closures

Dobrindt has made a concerted effort to portray the beefed-up border checks as a success.

A week after announcing them, he travelled to the German-Austrian border to thank German police for their efforts. Wearing a police jacket in front of the television cameras in the rain, Dobrindt said 739 people had been turned away in the seven days following the increased border checks — an increase of 45 percent from a week earlier. Of the people denied entry, he said, 32 wished to apply for asylum.

To put that in perspective, in 2024 nearly 230,000 people applied for asylum in Germany for the first time, according to European statistics. Germany continues to take in the vast majority of people seeking asylum in the country.

The reality is that German authorities remain reluctant to stop asylum seekers at its borders in large numbers because it could spark cascading border closures that would cause chaos and stoke anger. Legal scholars and left-leaning German opposition parties also argue that returning asylum seekers at the national border violates European laws.

“We’re confronted with a new dimension, because a state is openly saying it’s breaking European law,” said Constantin Hruschka, an expert in migration law. “There is a certain outrage from neighboring states that we did not see before.”

Dobrindt, however, argues that Germany is within its rights to suspend European law in order to safeguard internal security and “counteract [the] excessive demands” on Germany’s asylum system.

A recent episode at a German-Polish bridge crossing underscored the complicated reality the German government now faces in attempting to implement its border crackdown.

Days after Dobrindt announced the increased checks, two Afghan asylum seekers tried to enter Germany from Poland. The German police attempted to return them, according to a Spiegel report that cited police documents. But the Polish authorities refused to take the Afghans, so the German police took them to a reception center in Germany.

The German and Polish interior ministries did not reply to requests for comment on the incident from POLITICO.

Making victory ‘easier’ for the far right

Even if Germany’s actions at the border have, until now, proven largely symbolic, the new government’s vows to return asylum seekers have angered allies.

Polish authorities in particular have been outraged by the stepped-up checks, which have caused traffic jams at busy crossings. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in an interview this week that he would retaliate should German police attempt to send back asylum seekers entering Germany from Poland.

“I will be ready to close the border,” he said.

Warsaw’s reaction threatens to undermine Merz’s attempts to revitalize relations between Germany and Poland, which the chancellor views as an essential partner, particularly on Europe’s common defense.

Even former Chancellor Angela Merkel, a longtime leader of Merz’s own Christian Democratic Union (CDU), sharply criticized the border policy, arguing the only real way to reduce the influx of asylum seekers was to forge a common European approach.

“I’m arguing for European solutions because otherwise we could see Europe being ruined, and I don’t want that, and I hope that the new federal government doesn’t want that either,” she said at an event this week.

Ultimately, some experts argue, the AfD may benefit the most should Merz rely on hollow measures to appear tough on migration.

“This government must succeed in its policy because we really need a Germany where the far right doesn’t win elections,” Knaus said. “Immigration is an issue that matters to people. But nothing is gained by indulging in illusions, which we know will fail and then make it even easier for the far right.”