The missile math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

“Probably the worst day in the history of the Russian air force.”

This is how the Ukrainian military described its barrage of drone attacks on Russian airfields on Sunday, no doubt elated by the scale and reach of the simultaneous strikes, which might have taken out more than 40 strategic bombers.

The claim was a bold one — and not exactly accurate. At least 1,200 and possibly as many as 2,000 Soviet aircraft were destroyed by the German Luftwaffe on June 22, 1941 — the first day of Nazi Germany’s invasion of the USSR.

Ukraine’s hyperbole notwithstanding, though, Sunday was, indeed, a bad day for Russia’s military. It was also a mighty response to the awful missile and drone strikes the Kremlin unleashed on Ukrainian cities last week — assaults that even provoked the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump, who broke with his general willingness to give his Russian counterpart the benefit of the doubt and accused him of having “gone absolutely CRAZY.”

But will this counterassault amount to much more than an operationally notable air raid — albeit one that’s deeply embarrassing for a Kremlin that’s clearly infuriated by Ukraine’s refusal to act like a loser?

Last week, Russia launched 472 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine, while also mounting a deadly missile strike on a military training center. The drone tally marked the highest nightly total in the war so far, exceeding the previous overnight record of 355 in May. Ukrainian military commanders had expected the uptick in aerial assaults. As Unpacked noted in March, Russia had been gearing up for a massive increase in drone and missile strikes, doubling down on longstanding efforts to exhaust Ukraine’s dwindling supplies of Patriot air-defense missiles.

With little chance of significant replenishment from Washington, the Kremlin knows full well that Ukraine’s key cities and civilian infrastructure are becoming increasingly exposed. And it clearly means to take full advantage of this, seeking, as always, to break Ukraine’s will to resist.

So, Sunday’s audacious retaliation was a welcome morale boost, mounted on the eve of fruitless peace talks in Istanbul, where the Ukrainian delegation offered a full and conditional ceasefire and Russia once again declined until the “root causes of the conflict” were resolved.

The counterassault was the most sophisticated Ukraine has launched so far. Dubbed “Spiderweb,” the operation saw dozens of Russian bombers parked at separate air bases, thousands of miles away from the front lines, struck at all once.

The drones hit targets spread across Russia, including one base closer to Japan and another inside the Arctic Circle, Ukraine’s SBU security service claimed, quickly posting dramatic video footage of the assault on social media. To pull off the operation — which was 18 months in the planning — the drones were smuggled into Russia hidden in wooden mobile houses atop trucks, and the roofs were opened remotely to launch the strikes.

The SBU estimates the assault caused around $7 billion in damage and may have reduced Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers by a third. Ukrainian commanders must have especially relished hitting the bombers that have been firing missiles at Ukraine. “How beautiful Belaya airfield looks now,” General Vasyl Malyuk, head of the SBU, can be heard saying on one of the videos.

“The planning, organization, and all the details were perfectly prepared. It can be confidently said that this was an absolutely unique operation,” bragged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He then added salt to Russia’s wound, boasting that “the ‘office’ of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions.”

Sad to say, but while the strike does complicate where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without harsher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is getting increasingly difficult for Ukraine.

Currently, the country is believed to have eight Patriot missile batteries, yet only half a dozen are thought to be functioning at any one time because of repairs and maintenance schedules. The Patriots are about the only weapon Ukraine has to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but it often takes a pair of Patriot interceptors to knock out an incoming missile.

Meanwhile, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia plans to produce approximately 3,000 long-range missiles in 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 missiles. And though exactly how many Patriot missiles Ukraine has on hand is a closely guarded secret, most military observers suspect it’s less than 200. Even if Trump were to replenish the stock, or allow Ukraine to buy more missiles and batteries, Lockheed Martin only plans to boost missile output to 600 or so per year, and even a sympathetic administration wouldn’t want all of them transferred to Ukraine.

Essentially, the math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor. Hence, the country’s commanders are now focusing on the air bases of bombers that fire ballistic missiles and stage missile storage facilities. And perhaps we will see a repeat of Sunday’s attack, but it will be a very tall order, indeed.