Europe’s monster month

15 mins read

June 9, 2025 7:01 am CET

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GREETINGS, this is Nick Vinocur, here to keep you company on this Whit Monday. It’s a holiday in Belgium and EU institutions are closed. So we’ll use today’s Playbook to look over the parapet at the month to come. Hold onto your hats: It’s a doozy.

Sarah Wheaton will be with you on Tuesday.

DRIVING THE MONTH

EUROPE ENTERS TURBULENCE ZONE: Here’s a thought to trouble your Whit Monday — before the month is out, Europe will have to navigate a Justice and Home Affairs Council, a G7 meeting, a Foreign Affairs Council, a NATO summit, a European Council gathering and the manic final stretch of policymaking before Poland hands over the rotating presidency of the EU to Denmark.

And that’s not even counting International Falafel Day on June 12. Let’s roll up our sleeves and see what’s in store for Brussels’ monster month.

**A message from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance supported by the Gates Foundation: Since 2000, Gavi has protected over 1 billion children from vaccine-preventable diseases. Alongside the EU, Gavi 6.0 will strengthen global health security and keep Europe safe by protecting more children against more diseases, faster than ever before.**

DEBATING EUROPE’S PLACE IN THE HUMAN RIGHTS CONVENTION: First up is the Justice and Home Affairs Council on Thursday. Buried in the agenda is the matter of the EU’s accession to the European Convention on Human Rights. The treaty was signed by 47 countries, including the U.K., but the EU is not formally a member (and Russia is no longer a party after it was excluded from the Council of Europe in 2022). Negotiations on its accession have been ongoing since the 1970s, with a renewed push in recent years. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and former European Council President Charles Michel called for it in 2023.

Migration trumps all: But the EU’s bid is now hostage to a hardening stance toward migration from several member countries. Last month, nine heads of state, including those of Italy and Denmark, wrote to von der Leyen voicing concern about how the ECHR handles migration cases.

Groundswell on the right: Now, 41 right-wing lawmakers — mainly from the European Conservatives and Reformists and Patriots for Europe groups, plus one member of the European People’s Party — have added their names to the leaders’ call. That’s according to a letter seen by Playbook urging the Commission to reinterpret how the convention protects migrants from being sent back to countries where they will face torture or inhumane treatment.

Step back: It’s hard to see how the EU will make progress toward joining the ECHR when more than a quarter of the bloc’s members are questioning its principles. Rule of Law Commissioner Michael McGrath will be in for a tough day.

RUSSIAN OIL PRICE CAP IN FOCUS AT CANADA G7: Starting next Sunday, leaders of the G7 group of powerful Western-aligned nations meet in Kananaskis, Canada, in what’s billed as a major summit for Ukraine and broader security questions. Leaders from the EU, Ukraine, Mexico and Australia will also attend.

Driving the summit: The EU and Britain are pushing to lower the price cap on Russian crude oil to ramp up pressure on Moscow to stop its war against Ukraine. Indeed, U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said a move by the G7 to reduce the cap would be part of a “June crescendo” of measures designed to raise the cost of war for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Graham “crescendo”: In Graham’s telling, lowering the price cap to $45 or $50 from $60 per barrel — combined with the U.S. imposing 500 percent tariffs on Russian oil and raw materials exports and the EU adopting an 18th package of sanctions — would pack a powerful punch. While critics point out that Russia has been able to circumvent the price cap, Graham argues that U.S. secondary sanctions against those who buy Russian oil would force compliance from many nations — hitting Moscow hard in the wallet and forcing it to take peace negotiations seriously.

Trump factor: But, as is often the case these days, there’s a huge question mark over what U.S. President Donald Trump wants to do. The U.S. didn’t bite on the EU-U.K. push to lower the price cap when G7 finance ministers met in May. The Trump administration also appears to be ambivalent about Graham’s bill. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that presidential aides were quietly pushing to water down Graham’s “bone-crushing” plan, including by giving POTUS authority over which entities are targeted and changing the word “shall” to “may” in the bill.

In his brain: Pressed by reporters on Graham’s bill (whose authors have insisted it is “veto proof” and has wide bipartisan support), Trump said backers must wait for his green light to move ahead with a vote. Yet he won’t be tied down to a date. He said the deadline was “in my brain,” despite having stated on May 28 that it would take “about a week and a half to two weeks” to determine if Putin was serious about peace.

Bottom line: Graham’s prediction of a powerful coordinated approach to force Russia to sue for peace may yet start coming together in Canada. But without Trump’s approval (U.S. lawmakers are unlikely to go directly against the president), the entire edifice looks very shaky indeed.

Bonus track — sanctions: According to one senior diplomat who is closely following the G7 preparations, the EU is also awaiting its cue to move ahead with an 18th package of sanctions against Russia. If the U.S. signs on to a coordinated approach, the next sanctions package could come to a vote as soon as June 20, the diplomat said.

MONSTER MONTH, CONT.

ISRAEL IN FOCUS AT EU FOREIGN AFFAIRS COUNCIL: When EU foreign ministers gather in Brussels on June 23, the big topic on the table will be Israel, with the European External Action Service expected to present the conclusions of its review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.

Path unclear: As Gabriel Gavin reported last week, European Council President António Costa said he expects the review to find that Israel is falling short of its human rights obligations in Gaza. However, the next steps are anyone’s guess: The Council would need to vote on changing the agreement, with a suspension likely requiring unanimity — unlikely given the opposition of some countries. Downgrading parts of the review could be done by a qualified majority.

Here again, the Trump factor is non-negligible: Will the EU make a move that risks irritating Washington in the midst of negotiating its trading relationship with the U.S.? Recent experience suggests that caution is the overriding principle in all matters concerning the transatlantic relationship.

HISTORIC NATO SUMMIT IN THE HAGUE: Then it’s over to The Hague in the Netherlands for a high-stakes NATO Summit on June 24-25, where EU leaders are expected to approve a new defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP.

The big question is: by when? NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said the deadline could be 2032, but some Russia-facing countries are pushing for a tighter timeline, our colleagues over at Morning Defense reported on Thursday.

Silver lining: Amid the angst heading into the NATO summit, there is one piece of good news for Europeans committed to preserving their transatlantic security links: The alliance announced the appointment of a new supreme allied commander in Europe, Lieutenant General Alexus G. Grynkewich. He’s an American — laying to rest reports that the U.S. could turn over the crucial role to a European.

RUSSIA SANCTIONS SET TO DOMINATE EUCO: Finally, there’s the next gathering of the European Council taking place on June 26 and 27. Here, the action is likely to focus, once again, on Ukraine and the risk that Hungary or Slovakia could stand in the way of rolling over Europe’s sanctions package in July.

More bark than bite: Slovakia threw a spanner in the works on Sunday, with Prime Minister Robert Fico saying his country will block any EU sanctions against Russia that damage the country’s interests, Leonie Cater reported. Yet Slovakia has never so far blocked a sanctions bill, and the senior diplomat cited above said that neither Bratislava nor Budapest is likely to block the rollover if — and it’s a big if — they get a signal from the U.S. to stand down.

Trump factor part deux: Again, Trump inserts a huge measure of uncertainty, leading to efforts to “Hungary-proof” the sanctions rollover, as we reported here. Of particular concern is how to shield Belgium, where Russia’s frozen assets are being held by Euroclear, from legal risk if the sanctions regime collapses. Per my colleague Gregorio Sorgi, the U.K. is pushing for the assets to be transferred to a special fund. Stay tuned.

Presidency’s last dash: And then, of course, there will be a scramble by the EU’s Polish presidency to get files over the line before Warsaw hands the baton to Copenhagen.

Tired yet? Enjoy Whit Monday. We’ll need all the rest we can get.

EU AFFAIRS

INDIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN TOWN: India’s top foreign envoy, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, is in town today amid an EU push to diversify its trading relationships around the world. Jaishankar will huddle with top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas as well as “senior leadership” from the European Commission and the European Parliament, according to a readout from the Indian prime minister’s office. The meeting takes place amid a major push to sign an EU-India trade agreement and follows a visit by the College of Commissioners in February.

METSOLA IN NEW YORK: European Parliament President Roberta Metsola is taking advantage of the long weekend to travel to New York — her third trip to the U.S. in three months. She will deliver a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in which she’s expected to emphasize “the importance of EU-U.S. relations” and address the situation in the Middle East, according to her office. She will also drop in at the New York Stock Exchange and meet with Chelsea Clinton at the Clinton Foundation.

NORWAY CALLS FOR “URGENT” CAPITAL MARKETS REFORM: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, is calling for urgent reforms to Europe’s capital markets, including harmonised tax, insolvency and supervisory rules, so that it doesn’t fall behind the U.S. and Asian competitors, the FT reports. The fund will send a response to the Commission’s consultation on capital markets integration this week, urging it to be more ambitious.

FAKE NEWS: Anti-EU disinformation went into overdrive as the bloc’s energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, visited candidate country Moldova late last week ahead of critical parliamentary elections that will define its future path. Local authorities and the EU Mission issued fake news warnings over claims that Brussels was planning to cut off funding for the country’s energy system, despite Jørgensen vowing that it would continue the support to bring down high power bills.

Watch this space: The smear campaign comes just months before Moldovans go to the polls to vote for their next government, and after widespread reports that Russia had actively paid voters to cast their ballots against joining the EU last October. The bloc has dispatched a civilian mission to shore up resilience against disinformation campaigns.

*J-3 before VivaTech! Europe’s biggest startup and tech event returns to Paris from June 11-14. From cutting-edge advancements to the evolving global landscape, stage discussions will dive into how innovation is transforming every aspect of our world. Book your pass now! *

IN OTHER NEWS

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The Israeli military intercepted an aid boat on its way to Gaza with a dozen activists on board, including Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz had earlier ordered the military to “take any means necessary” to stop it reaching Gaza. The foreign ministry said the activists were being taken to Israel and would be sent back to their home countries: “They were provided with sandwiches and water. The show is over.” Reuters has the story.

CALIFORNIAN CHAOS: California Governor Gavin Newsom described Donald Trump’s decision to deploy troops to quash immigration protests in Los Angeles as “unlawful,” POLITICO reports. Trump became the first president in 60 years to deploy the National Guard without a governor’s approval on Sunday, after police clashed with demonstrators in the wake of a series of deportation-related arrests over the weekend.

Trump told reporters there were “violent people” in LA and “we are not going to let them get away with it.” Former Democratic presidential candidate and California native Kamala Harris said deploying the National Guard was “a dangerous escalation meant to provoke chaos.”

WILL MACRON GAMBLE AGAIN? Exactly one year ago, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked France by dissolving parliament, losing his majority and sparking a crisis. With snap elections allowed annually, will he risk it again? Marion Solletty has come up with some super-serious predictions for the French president’s next big surprise amid ongoing political uncertainty.

TARIFF CUT DELAY FUELS FRUSTRATION: A month after Trump and Keir Starmer’s “historic” trade deal promised to slash the 25 percent U.S. tariffs on British steel, aluminum, and cars, the duties remain, Graham Lanktree writes. British firms like Jaguar Land Rover face heavy costs — with no clear timeline for relief. Officials say negotiations are ongoing, but frustrations are mounting as the deal’s benefits remain stalled, fueling uncertainty and pressure on Starmer’s government to deliver swift implementation.

CONSCRIPTION BACK ON THE TABLE: Germany’s conservatives are pushing to reconsider compulsory military service amid concerns that voluntary recruitment won’t meet the Bundeswehr’s growing personnel needs, Chris Lunday reports. While the current plan encourages short-term voluntary contracts, senior lawmakers say mandatory service could be introduced if troop targets tied to NATO commitments aren’t met.

Infrastructure limits: Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and SPD officials emphasize that a return to conscription isn’t feasible immediately due to shortages in training facilities and equipment.

TOO MUCH XXX ON X: France may classify Elon Musk’s X as a porn platform, requiring strict age verification to protect minors, POLITICO’s Émile Marzolf reports. Digital Minister Clara Chappaz’s office says X accepts pornographic content and must comply with regulations that mandate age checks by June 7. If it doesn’t comply, it could face fines, delisting or blocking.

AGENDA

— Parliament President Roberta Metsola is in New York City, where she participates in a fireside chat with business representatives at the European American Chamber of Commerce at 3:15 p.m.; delivers a keynote speech at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations at 5 p.m.; meets the Clinton Foundation at 6:45 p.m. and the leadership of the NY Stock Exchange at 9 p.m.

—United Nations Ocean Conference in Nice, France; Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa deliver speeches at the plenary session at 10 a.m.; VDL presents the European Ocean Pact at 1:30 p.m. Watch.

— Oceans Commissioner Costas Kadis makes multiple speeches at UN Ocean Conference side events and participates in one on “Protecting Life in Deep Waters: Time for precautionary action on deep-sea mining.”

— Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica is also in Nice; meets Benjamin Haddad, France’s minister of European affairs; participates in the summit “For a More Connected Mediterranean.”

— Sustainable Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas meets Renaud Muselier, president of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, in Nice.

— Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall meets Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s secretary of environment, in Nice.

— Commission Executive Vice President Roxana Mînzatu in Moldova; meets Moldova’s President Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean; press conference with Moldovan Labor Minister Alexei Buzu at 11 a.m. Watch.

— NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte travels to the U.K.; meets Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London; gives a speech at Chatham House; visits Sheffield Forgemasters with Defence Secretary John Healey.

— Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič meets Richard Raši, speaker of the National Council of Slovakia.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: High of 19C, sunny intervals.

VIGIL FOR BOY KILLED IN POLICE CHASE: Hundreds gathered Sunday at Parc Elisabeth in Ganshoren to mourn an 11-year-old boy who was struck and killed by a police vehicle while riding a scooter in the park on June 2. A small number of protesters later clashed with police at a station in Molenbeek-Saint-Jean, with water cannon used to disperse them, according to Belgian media reports. Authorities are under mounting pressure due to what critics have described as an inadequate public response to the incident.

SPEND AN EVENING WITH THE QUEEN OF SARCASM: American author Fran Lebowitz is coming to Brussels on Sept. 20.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Konstantinos Arvanitis; European Commission’s Krzysztof Nowaczek; Akshay Joshi of the World Economic Forum; EIOPA’s Philip Kitzmantel; AWO’s Mathias Vermeulen; Constance Balsamo from Diageo; Bosnian politician Denis Zvizdić; ZDF’s Shakuntala Banerjee.

THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Dean Southwell.

CORRECTION: This newsletter has been updated to clarify the number of parties to the ECHR.

**A message from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance supported by the Gates Foundation: Since 2000, Gavi has protected over 1 billion children from vaccine-preventable diseases, averting over 18 million deaths and generating US $250 billion in economic benefits. With support from the EU, we can reach the next billion even faster. The Global Summit on 25 June will launch Gavi 6.0, a renewed effort to strengthen global health security and save lives. By protecting more children against more diseases, faster than ever, Gavi is ensuring Europe’s safety by reducing cross-border threats, while supporting countries to become self-sufficient and less reliant on aid. Immunisation is one of the best buys in development, and the EU’s steadfast partnership with Gavi since 2003 has been essential to this success. Continued support from the European Commission and Member States will help make our world safer, healthier and more prosperous.**

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