London Playbook PM: Death metal growl

18 mins read

February 11, 2025 6:08 pm CET

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Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.

TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Business ministers have been trying to reassure the steel sector the government has their back over the looming Donald Trump tariffs.

— The government made clear it won’t launch tariff retaliation … for now.

— Debate is raging about whether tweaks to the assisted death bill could see it killed off.

— Britain refused to sign an AI declaration in a blow for French President Emmanuel Macron.

— CCTV will be installed in a parliament bar where an alleged spiking incident took place.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

DEATH METAL GROWL: Ministers are battling to keep the fragile U.K. steel sector calm while the government begs Donald Trump to spare Britain from his punitive tariffs.

Showing some mettle: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds spoke to U.K. Steel in the past half hour, after Industrial Minister Sarah Jones also met businesses and unions this afternoon to offer reassuring words.

On the Sarah Jones bit: A government spokesperson said it was a productive meeting. “We will always act in the national interest and stand up for steel communities,” Jones told Playbook PM. “This government will not respond with knee jerk reactions, instead we will work with industry to safeguard steel making for generations to come.”

This is fine: Downing Street is doing its best to put on a serene front despite the looming 25 percent bazooka that could decimate the British steel sector. A spokesperson for Keir Starmer said the government will take a “considered approach” — while adding that the “special relationship” between the U.K. and U.S. is “very good.”

Chill, Winston: The Churchill bust in the Oval Office smirked at that one.

All of this is a massive problem because … around 10 percent of U.K. steel exports go to the U.S. — the second biggest export market after the EU. But the bigger issue is the flood of steel other nations send to the U.S. which will be washing around the globe depleting prices once the American tariffs come in. It will be like the existing market (which sees China dumping its steel at knock-down prices around the world) on steroids. And the global market issue will be a problem even if the U.K. manages to avoid tariffs.

Further reference: This thread from Sky’s Ed Conway on the global steel market in the context of Trump’s tariffs is well worth a read.

The good news for the U.K. (and all involved) is … nations have until March 12 to negotiate exemptions before the impending new duties take effect. Britain is outside the EU so can negotiate on this stuff alone, and the impact our imports have on the U.S. market is minimal. Trump suggested he will do a deal with (left-wing) Aussie PM Anthony Albanese, so there’s hope for Keir Starmer still.

Not to mention: There’s always the hope the erratic president changes his mind about the whole thing.

The bad news for the U.K. (and others involved) is … exemptions for products not manufactured in the U.S. and quotas allowing a proportion of exports to enter the American market before tariffs kick in aren’t in the plan at the moment. Such measures were crucial to protecting the British steel sector last time around. So Starmer (and Peter Mandelson et al) are negotiating in a pretty dire scenario for the steel sector.

We’re on it, lads: The government is appealing to the White House and the U.K. steel sector is appealing to its American customers to make the case to the government there that British imports are not the problem.

Don’t poke the orangutang: And Trade Minister Douglas Alexander made clear during a Commons urgent question the U.K. government will not be retaliating against the U.S. … for now, at least. “What British industry needs and deserves is not a knee-jerk reaction, but a cool and clear-headed sense of the U.K.’s national interest, based on a full assessment of all the implications of the U.S. actions,” he said.

Also not poking the orangutan: The U.K. and U.S. refused to sign the final communiqué at Emannuel Macron’s AI Action Summit in France. My POLITICO colleague Tom Bristow revealed on Monday Britain was unlikely to sign after (drum roll) Trump administration officials complained about the wording.

Indeed: MAGA world had expressed reservations over language calling for “inclusive and sustainable” AI. And the last thing Keir Starmer wants to do is rile his pal in the White House.

But but but: The U.K. government insisted the problem was a lack of “practical clarity on global governance” and failure to “address harder questions around national security and the challenge AI poses to it.” Whether we are bending to the whims of the MAGA crowd or not, at least we’ll always have that Churchill bust.

IN OTHER EXISTENTIAL CRISES …

WHEN YOUR NUMBER IS UP: SW1 is back to guessing voting numbers on the assisted dying bill — with critics of the latest amendments claiming it no longer has the numbers to pass at report stage. “I don’t think it would have passed the House of Commons if this new system [was in the bill],” lead skeptic (and bill committee member) Danny Kruger told the Today program about the plan to dispense with the High Court-sign off for applications and replace it with panels of experts.

Getting stuck in: A number of fellow critics echoed his comments, including Conservative former minister James Cleverly, who told LBC’s Andrew Marr the government should take control of the currently backbench bill.

But but but: Team Leadbeater insists some who did not vote for the bill at second reading are indicating new support as a result of the panels plan. “It’s really difficult to suggest that, by having three experts involved in this extra layer of scrutiny, that is somehow a change for the worse,” Leadbeater told Radio 4. “It’s absolutely a change for the better.” That sound you can hear is the entire U.K. media firing up their spreadsheets totting up how MPs are expected to vote.

Speaking of which: The Independent has Reform MP Lee Anderson changing his mind (an unexpected move from the former Labour then Conservative member) plus Lib Dem Alistair Carmichael is mulling what to do.

What Keir Starmer thinks: We don’t know. Despite voting for the bill at second reading, Downing Street declined to comment on what the PM thinks about the amendment. The assumption at Westminster is that the government had a hand in the new clause, however.

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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

STRANGERS DANGER: CCTV will be installed in Strangers’ bar when it reopens after an alleged spiking incident in parliament last month, my colleague Esther Webber first revealed this afternoon. The footage will only be accessed if an incident is reported, so bad luck to those who had been hoping the inside of a Commons bar would be live-streamed to the public. There will also be a number of other measures designed to protect drinkers, such as staff training and covers for glassware on request.

But but but: The watering hole will still be open to staffers, after some calls to restrict it, and the changes are unlikely to pacify those who think boozing on the estate should dry up altogether. The new moves were confirmed by parliamentary authorities this evening.

IS THAT THE LINE? The Express has picked up claims that Farming Minister Daniel Zeichner told a conference farmers that are “not high on the pecking order” of the government. Ruh roh.

CAUGHT IN THE MET: The Home Office said it was racing to ensure police forces can “dismiss officers who cannot maintain vetting clearance” after the High Court ruled the Met cannot sack wrong’uns by stripping their clearance.

HALF-ARSED NELSON: Some ministers have been waxing lyrical about the need to combat global poverty, 20 years on from Nelson Mandela proclaiming to Trafalgar Square “Make Poverty History.” But the 20th anniversary event held this morning in Westminster saw no ministerial representation from the government, save for one junior Scotland minister, my POLITICO colleague Mason Boycott-Owen writes in.

Thinking emoji: Doubtless FCDO ministers didn’t want to bump into the CEO of GAVI, the vaccine organization the government is reportedly looking to cut funding for.

WHAT PLAYBOOK PM READER RACHEL REEVES THINKS ABOUT THE MEDIA: The chancellor told comedian Matt Forde last night (for a podcast released this afternoon) she had to stop her mum writing to the Mail to complain about its coverage of the public finances. “You’ll have ‘pound plummets’ and then, two days later, it’s one of the best days ever for the pound, and no one writes it,” Reeves noted.

But but but: Reeves said it “doesn’t matter too much” what the papers write. “We can communicate directly with people,” she explained, about social media. “I don’t think the newspapers have the same influence as they did in 1992 or even 1997.” Although she noted how the front pages influence what the broadcasters cover.

Oh and … on Reeves’s ginger moment: Reeves revealed that two weeks when she went ginger was a “total nightmare … hair fiasco” and a “huge mistake” after she tried a treatment that was meant to make her barnet smoother. Instead it went a bit orange.

PUTTING YOUR FEET UP: More than a dozen Labour MPs including Maya Ellis and Rachael Maskell are supporting an amendment to the Employment Rights Bill calling for the government to establish a body to provide recommendations about how the U.K. could transition from a five-day to a four-day week. The Mirror’s Ashley Cowburn got the story.

GOD LOVES TRYERS: The Tories launched another destined-to-fail gambit to tack an official rape gang inquiry on to the children’s wellbeing and schools bill at committee stage this afternoon. Shadow Education Minister Neil O’Brien said it was “disgraceful” Labour had voted it down. The government argues a full national probe is not needed and has backed further local investigations should councils choose to hold them.

More grievances: The Tories were also angry because Labour voted against … banning phones in schools … reporting all acts of violence against teachers to the police … and forcing teachers to show parents teaching materials.

BAILIFFS CRACKDOWN: Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones told MPs the government will consider tougher regulation of bailiffs after Labour MP Luke Charters raised some shocking stories in a Westminster Hall debate. He related how enforcement agents caused extreme mental health distress in some cases and, in one incident, contributed to a young man’s suicide.

GROWTH MURDER OMERTA: MPs became irate with the Financial Ombudsman chair in a heated committee hearing, after its chief exec abruptly left amid Labour’s growth-or-die strategy. Zahida Manzoor, a Conservative peer and chair of the consumer body, declined to detail why chief executive Abby Thomas resigned unexpectedly, amid reports she was under pressure to take a less consumer-friendly approach.

Do better: “I don’t want to get heavy about contempt of parliament, but you are here to answer questions to parliament,” exasperated Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier said. The committee followed up with letters asking a string of questions about the departure.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Sanctioning an alleged cyber crime group … and its claim that 10,000 more people could do apprenticeships after reducing the sign-up criteria.

**The AI Fringe by Milltown Partners is back. We're bringing a diverse set of voices together across 11 and 12 February at the British Library to delve into the themes and outcomes from the AI Action Summit in Paris and what they mean for policymakers, businesses and citizens. More here.**

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

IN THE CHAMBER WHERE IT HAPPENED: Watch the clip of Sue Gray taking her place in the House of Lords.

MUG SALESMAN IN CHIEF: Conservative co-chair Dominic Johnson notes how Margaret Thatcher used to walk his dog, in this LinkedIn clip to shift a few CCHQ mugs. Kemi Badenoch shared her own pic with the former PM, and the other Conservative co-chair Nigel Huddleston was crushing on Thatcher too. It’s all to commemorate half a century since Mrs T won the Conservative leadership, of course.

ARE YOU HARD? The government published some pics of blokes looking tough after conducting an exercise responding to a pretend national security emergency. The test was dubbed Octacine 2 — for fans of names that could have come from a Power Rangers script. The Home Office didn’t spell out whether or not the test was a success. Which is … reassuring.

WASTE IN VOGUE: Following the success of Elon Musk spinning examples of apparent U.S. government waste, numerous social media accounts are popping up highlighting U.K. examples too. The latest one is the Waste Files from Britain Remade’s Jason Brown.

LEAST EXPECTED HEADLINE OF THE DAY: AI chatbots seem to be utterly crap at giving factual answers and should not be consulted on questions about current events and the real world, research from the Beeb suggests. AI “assistants” were asked basic questions about BBC News stories, and the broadcaster found “significant issues” in more than half — including clear factual errors and altered or fabricated quotes. Read the damning assessment from BBC News CEO Deborah Turness here.

BEYOND THE M25

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will take “determined and relentless action” until Hamas releases all living and dead hostages after a planned release Saturday was postponed. It followed confirmation that Shlomo Mansour, an elderly Israeli man aged 86, was killed during Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks and that his body is still being held in Gaza. The BBC has a writeup.

Meanwhile: U.S. President Donald Trump and King Abdullah of Jordan will doubtless discuss Trump’s divisive Gaza plan at their White House meeting. More in Reuters.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his insistence that the U.S. needs to continue supporting Ukraine to ensure its long-term security. “Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees,” Zelenskyy told the Guardian. The president also said he would offer American companies lucrative reconstruction contracts to try and get Trump onside.

FROM GERMANY: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his main rival Friedrich Merz continued to tear chunks out of each other during a debate in the Bundestag. My colleague Nette Nöstlinger has the write-up.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on MPs scrutinizing the assisted dying legislation … as does ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) … BBC News at Six looks at Donald Trump’s Gaza plans and the threats to Egypt and Jordan … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.).

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Donald Trump’s former political adviser Sam Nunberg (5.05 p.m.) … Tory MP Kit Malthouse (5.35 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson … Business and Trade Committee Chair Liam Byrne … former Crown Prosecution Service lawyer Nick Vamos … former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Harry Broadman … Victims’ Commissioner for London Claire Waxman … the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and commentator Tim Montgomerie (both 6 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Bridget Phillipson (5.15 p.m.) … former Met Police Chief Superintendent Dal Babu (5.30 p.m.).

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Senior Adviser to the U.S. State Department’s Israel-Palestinian Negotiating Team Laura Blumenfeld (5.30 p.m.) … former U.K. Ambassador to Jordan Peter Millett (6.30 p.m.) … the U.K.’s first AI Skills Champion Wendy Hall (6.45 p.m.).

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Margaret Thatcher’s former Private Secretary Caroline Slocock.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly (6 p.m.) … Bridget Phillipson (6.15 p.m.) … former Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption … Margaret Thatcher’s former Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs Charles Powell.

Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Reform UK Deputy Leader Ben Habib … former Labour adviser Scarlett MccGwire.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Bridget Phillipson … Labour MP Antonia Bance … Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine … former Downing Street Director of Communications Guto Harri.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Labour MP Jo White … former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat … former Tory MP Ranil Jayawardena … former Lib Dem adviser Jo Phillips.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Northern Ireland Affairs Committee Chair Tonia Antoniazzi … Tory MP Joe Robertson … broadcaster Gavin Esler.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Unaffiliated peer and former Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster.

Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Tory MP Esther McVey … former Tory MP Tim Loughton.

Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Labour MP Dawn Butler.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory SpAd Mo Hussein and the i’s Jane Merrick … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Journo Jenny Kleeman and former Tory PPC Alex Deane.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

BOOZE AND BOOKS: Top hacks Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund launch their new book about Labour tonight. But invites are needed and the list is absolutely full up, so additions aren’t possible at this point.

GETTING LOADED WITH THE LOBBY: Political reporters host their annual lobby chairman’s pint in Moncrieff’s from 6.30 p.m. Invites needed.

PROUD AS PUNCH: LGBT+ Labour is hosting an event celebrating LGBT+ veterans from 6.45 p.m. in the Jubilee Room in parliament.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Housing and probation.

IN THE COMMONS: Science questions kicks the action off from 11.30 a.m. before PMQs and some legislative action.

THIS MEANS WAR: Britain leads a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels.

ON COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds appear at the women and equalities committee from 2.20 p.m. … and the Welsh affairs committee hears from Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan from 2.30 p.m.

WHAT THE PM IS UP TO: Keir Starmer will meet the families of Nottingham attack victims in Downing Street.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Pork and apple burger with coleslaw and sweetcorn relish; marmite macaroni cheese with chestnut mushrooms and roasted red onions; cod and leek fish cake with roasted peppers, courgette and tomato compote … The Debate: Beef and ale pie topped with pulled beef, and cucumber and parsley salsa; soy and ginger salmon with lemon and dill buckwheat and pickled ginger; sweet potato and bean Caribbean curry … Terrace Cafeteria: Lamb rogan josh with rice, mango chutney and poppadum; mussel and leek risotto with garlic bread; sweet potato and feta muffin … River Restaurant: Falafel and halloumi kebab in pitta; roast chicken with all the trimmings.

WHITE SMOKE: The actual Pope sided with obscure podcaster Rory Stewart over U.S. Vice President JD Vance in the never-ending theological argument/political spat about whether the Bible says we should prioritize our families before the rest of the world. “It is only by affirming the infinite dignity of all that our own identity as persons and as communities reaches its maturity,” Pope Francis wrote in a letter to U.S. bishops. Ralph Fiennes was not available for comment.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Veteran political broadcaster Jon Craig has a long read about Margaret Thatcher’s legacy half a century after she became Tory leader. He writes that Thatcher is “grudgingly respected by present and former Labour prime ministers” and cities the parallels between 1975 and 2025 — including Starmer and Thatcher both employing voice coaches.

THE THING YOU NEVER REALIZED YOU NEEDED TO READ: A scathing review of the Bob Dylan biopic by Conservative MP George Freeman.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Feb. 11, 1806 William Grenville became prime minister. He went on to abolish the slave trade. On the same date in 1975 Margaret Thatcher beat Edward Heath to take the Conservative leadership. More on that from the great Tides of History social media feed.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.

THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.